For a deeper dive, see our full XRP forecast here.
Bitcoin Advances as Israel-Iran Truce Hopes Boost Risk Sentiment
While XRP rallied, bitcoin (BTC) advanced on rising hopes of a swift end to the Israel-Iran conflict. Despite four days of attacks, there were reportedly no disruptions to oil supply, easing fears of a potential spike in oil-driven inflationary pressures, which could impact central bank policy easing goals.
WTI crude oil slid 2.17% on June 16, fueling demand for risk assets. The Nasdaq Composite Index closed the June 16 session up 1.52%, boosting market appetite for BTC and the broader crypto market.
US BTC-Spot ETF Extends Inflow Streak, Signaling a BTC Breakout
Easing concerns about a prolonged Israel-Iran conflict also drove demand for US BTC-spot ETFs. According to Farside Investors, key flows for June 16 included:
- Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) had net inflows of $83.0 million.
- Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) saw net inflows of $41.4 million.
- Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) and Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust (BTC) reported combined net inflows of $17.6 million.
Excluding pending flow data for BlackRock’s (BLK) iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), BTC-spot ETF issuers saw total net inflows of $142.0 million, extending the inflow streak to six sessions.
Santiment commented on shifting sentiment toward BTC, stating:
“Bitcoin has surged as high as $108,947 with traders continuing to await another challenge of last month’s $112,000 all-time high. Interestingly, after 3 months straight of declining whale & shark numbers, the BTC network has 622 more 10+ BTC wallets in just under 4 weeks.”
Significantly, BTC has held above the crucial $100,000 level since President Trump announced trade talks with China on May 8.
BTC Price Outlook: Geopolitical Risks and ETF Flows
BTC rose 1.18% on June 16, following Sunday’s 0.08% gain, closing at $106,806. The near-term price outlook hinges on Israel-Iran-related updates, legislative developments, the upcoming FOMC’s economic projections (June 18), and ETF flows.
Potential scenarios:
- Bearish Scenario: Escalating Israel-Iran conflict, legislation roadblocks, hawkish Fed signals, and ETF outflows. A combination of these could send BTC below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), bringing $100,000 into play.
- Bullish Scenario: Progress toward an Israel-Iran truce, bipartisan support for crypto bills, a dovish Fed stance, and ETF inflows. Under these scenarios, the bulls could retarget the all-time high of $111,917.
